Pourquoi les gens votent-ils moins aux élections municipales? Le cas de Gatineau.

Vivre dans une société démocratique suppose avoir le droit et le privilège de se prononcer sur les gens qui nous gouvernent. Dans une pratique démocratique idéale, 100 % des personnes éligibles, selon les règles établies par la société, participeraient aux différents scrutins. Or, au Canada, comme dans plusieurs pays où le vote n’est pas obligatoire, la réalité est tout autre.

En marketing, il y a un principe important qui stipule que pour déclencher un comportement chez un individu, il faut d’abord que ce dernier perçoive qu’il a un problème à résoudre, ou qu’il ressente un besoin à combler. Au lendemain des élections du 5 novembre 2017, je cherchais à comprendre pourquoi les gens étaient moins nombreux à participer aux élections municipales qu’aux autres niveaux d’élection. Dans un billet de blogue, je suggérais que le maire devrait peut-être se réjouir que seulement 39 % des électeurs se soient rendus aux urnes, ce qui signifiait que 61% d’entre eux n’avaient pas de problème avec la ville; qu’ils ne ressentaient pas le besoin de contribuer. J’émettais aussi l’hypothèse que la grande différence entre les élections provinciales, fédérales et municipales, c’était le lien fiscal : en général, tout le monde paie des impôts au fédéral et au provincial et se sentent partie prenante. Or, ce lien direct ($) étant absent pour les locataires au niveau municipal, ces derniers ont la perception d’être moins concernés et par conséquent, ne vont pas voter.

Selon des données disponibles sur les sites d’Élection Canada et du Directeur général des élections du Québec (DGEQ), on peut en effet constater qu’en moyenne, pour les quatre dernières élections, 68 % des Québécois ont voté aux élections provinciales, et 64 % aux élections fédérales, soit environ deux personnes sur trois. Au niveau municipal, toutefois, les taux de participation sont beaucoup plus faibles. Bien que la participation fluctue largement en fonction de la taille des municipalités, à l’échelle canadienne, une étude récente réalisée par Breux, Couture et Koop (2017) a démontré que le taux de vote moyen pour les trois dernières élections dans les 100 plus grandes villes canadiennes était de 36 %, ce qui représente à peine un électeur sur trois.

À Gatineau, partie intégrante de la région de la capitale nationale Ottawa et quatrième ville en importance au Québec avec une population de 284 373 habitants[1], les taux de participation aux élections suivent la tendance. Alors que les électeurs gatinois ont été respectivement 59 % et 70 % à se prononcer lors des plus récents scrutins au provincial et au fédéral, leur taux de participation a atteint un seuil plancher de 39 % aux élections municipales du 5 novembre 2017 (ce qui est tout de même légèrement au-dessus de la moyenne nationale pour les grandes villes). En fait, en comparaison avec sept autres grandes villes du Québec, on observe que Gatineau est celle qui a le taux de participation le plus élevé pour les élections fédérales, le plus faible pour les élections provinciales, et qu’elle figure parmi les dernières pour les élections municipales.

La proximité avec Ottawa et la proportion élevée de fonctionnaires fédéraux établis dans la région pourraient motiver la participation supérieure aux élections fédérales que provinciales, mais expliquent difficilement un taux si faible aux élections municipales. Le mystère demeure, et c’est pourquoi j’ai décidé d’approfondir le sujet dans le cadre d’un essai pour le programme de MBA marketing de l’UQO. Grâce à une revue de la littérature et à l’analyse comparative de données statistiques émanant d’enquêtes nationales et de sources gouvernementales pour huit villes québécoises, j’ai d’abord identifié une série d’autres facteurs ayant pu influencer la participation aux élections municipales à Gatineau en 2017. Ces facteurs ont été reformulés en hypothèses, qui ont ensuite été vérifiées auprès d’un échantillon de 808 Gatinois par le biais d’un sondage effectué en personne dans tous les secteurs de la ville, entre le 1ermai et le 2 juin 2018.

Le sujet vous intéresse? Cette étude fera l’objet d’un reportage ce dimanche 18h aux nouvelles de Radio-Canada Ottawa-Gatineau, et je divulguerai mes trouvailles à compter de lundi sur ce blogue.

À suivre!

Nathalie Brunette, MBA
Présidente, diAlgo

[1]http://www.gatineau.ca/portail/default.aspx?p=histoire_cartes_statistiques/coup_oeil

Gatineau, Politique municipale

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