
Quels sont les médias qui ont le plus d’influence sur la participation électorale? Le cas de Gatineau
Ce billet fait partie d’une série traitant des facteurs de motivation aux élections municipales, extrait d’un essai réalisé dans le cadre du programme de MBA – concentration marketing de l’Université du Québec en Outaouais. Les données locales sont issues d’un sondage effectué de personne à personne dans des lieux publics et centres commerciaux, dans tous les secteurs de la ville de Gatineau, entre le 1er mai et le 2 juin 2018. Au total, 808 questionnaires ont été retenus pour analyse, pour une marge d’erreur de 3,5 %, 19 fois sur 20. (NB)
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Hypothèse 7 – Les gens qui sont plus informés et plus éduqués sont plus nombreux à voter
Il peut sembler évident que les gens qui sont plus éduqués et plus informés de l’actualité municipale sont plus nombreux à se rendre aux urnes lors des élections. Dans le cadre de mon essai, j’ai voulu vérifier cette hypothèse…et effectivement, la relation entre ces variables est positive. Mais à quel point?
Tout d’abord, une analyse de Khi carré a démontré l’existence d’une relation entre l’éducation et le taux de vote. Le tableau 20 représente les résultats de mon enquête à cet égard.
Puisque la moyenne de participation pour l’ensemble des répondants se situait à 59 % dans le cadre de cette étude, nous pouvons donc observer que le point tournant pour une incidence sur le taux de participation aux élections municipales semble se situer au niveau collégial; les gens ayant une scolarisation plus faible ou aucun diplôme votent moins que la moyenne, tandis que les gens munis d’un diplôme universitaire votent plus que la moyenne de la population.
Voyons maintenant de quelle façon les Gatinois s’informent des nouvelles locales, et l’incidence de ce facteur sur le taux de vote. Pour illustrer mes résultats, le tableau 21 présente les réponses générales à la question 15 de notre enquête : « Quels sont les médias d’information que vous utilisez pour vous informer des nouvelles locales ?». Nous pouvons d’abord remarquer que les médias les plus consultés, outre les médias sociaux, sont les deux stations de télévision locales, TVA et Radio-Canada.
Mais quelle est l’influence de chacun de ces médias sur le taux de vote aux élections municipales? Voici ce que révèle l’analyse suivante, illustrée dans le tableau 22:
La première colonne reflète le taux de participation aux élections des auditeurs ou lecteurs pour chacun des médias. Un des premiers constats est que, toutes choses étant égales par ailleurs, les gens qui s’informent via les médias traditionnels (journaux, télé, radio), peu importe lesquels, ont un taux de participation supérieur à la moyenne, qui se situe à 59 % selon notre échantillon. Seuls les gens qui s’informent via les médias sociaux ou qui ne s’informent pas du tout obtiennent un taux de participation plus bas.
Remarquez l’influence des médias imprimés sur le taux de vote: je porte à votre attention que ce sont les lecteurs des hebdomadaires locaux et du quotidien Le Droit qui affichent les taux de participation les plus élevés aux élections municipales du 5 novembre 2017, la première place étant occupée par La Revue de Gatineau (qui malheureusement n’est plus… quelle perte pour la démocratie!) avec 81 % de participation au vote , suivie du Bulletin de Buckingham (73 %) et du quotidien Le Droit (71 %). Toutefois, leurs lecteurs ne représentent qu’une portion de la population.
La seconde colonne, intitulée « Poids relatif », offre un portrait plus juste de la situation en représentant la proportion de personnes ayant voté aux élections et qui se sont informées via ce média. Ce calcul a été effectué en multipliant la proportion de personnes qui consultent un média par le taux de vote des consommateurs dudit média. Le poids relatif peut se traduire ainsi : 28 % des gens qui ont voté aux élections du 5 novembre dernier se sont informés des nouvelles locales via TVA Gatineau-Ottawa. Nous observons encore une fois l’influence positive de la télévision ainsi que du quotidien Le Droit sur la participation électorale, et le poids important des médias sociaux qui arrivent au 4e rang (même si les gens qui s’informent par ce médium votent moins que la moyenne).
Ces résultats combinés pour le taux de scolarisation et le taux de consommation des médias locaux confirment donc notre hypothèse, à l’effet que les gens qui sont plus informés et mieux éduqués sont plus nombreux à voter. Et ils confirment surtout l’important rôle des médias locaux pour la démocratie municipale…
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